China's economic growth is slowing from double-digit rates to around 8% as the government dials back its extraordinary economic-stimulus policies to more normal settings, a new poll by The Wall Street Journal shows.

The poll, the latest in a quarterly series by the Journal, asks economists for their estimates of China's growth in the same seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter terms used by other major economies. China officially reports changes in gross domestic product only relative to the same period a year earlier, which can make it harder to discern turning points in the economy. The current slowdown appears to be viewed largely positively by Chinese policy makers, who since early this year have been taking measures to reduce the risk to the economy from surging house prices and rapidly expanding debts. Markets seem largely unfazed as well: Chinese stocks have actually been rallying in recent weeks, as many investors expect the government will not take additional steps to cool the economy and may even take new measures to support growth.

'It is highly likely that the economy will slow down and stabilize in the future, but a 'double dip' is not very likely,' China's central bank said in its quarterly report on the economy last month. 'The current economic slowdown is a correction of the excessively rapid expansion in earlier periods...[and] helps the structural adjustment and sustainable growth of China's economy.'

Given the strong start to the year--official figures put economic growth in the first half at 11.1%--China is still likely to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2010. The World Bank is expecting growth for the full year to average 9.5%. Though most expect the slowdown in the second half to be moderate, the cooling-off could still be challenging for a country accustomed to a long run of double-digit growth.

According to the median estimate of the 13 economists surveyed, China's GDP in the second quarter expanded 8.4% from the previous quarter on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, slowing from the first quarter's estimated 10.4% growth.

Those calculations suggest a sharper deceleration than the official figures, which show 10.3% year-on-year growth in the second quarter following the 11.9% gain in the first quarter. The second-quarter slowdown was also more pronounced than economists had forecast in the previous poll.

Economists expect the slowdown to continue, with their forecasts centering on annualized growth of 7.9% in the third quarter and 8.3% in the fourth quarter, though they generally expect growth to pick up again to about 9% over the course of 2011. Forecasters were divided over when growth will re-accelerate, with some expecting that to happen as early as the fourth quarter of 2010 and others not until the second quarter of 2011.

Private-sector economists have to make their own estimates of China's seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth without much official guidance on the data, which means that calculations often vary widely. There is also disagreement among professional forecasters on the correct way to make seasonal adjustments to data from a rapidly-changing economy like China's, compounding the uncertainty around the figures.

The People's Bank of China did not give its own estimate of quarter-on-quarter growth in its latest report, which it had in previous quarters. Economists have in the past criticized the central bank's estimates of quarterly growth for showing an unrealistic trajectory for the Chinese economy. China's statistics agency has also said it will start publishing such seasonally-adjusted growth figures this year, but has not yet done so.

Participating in the Journal's poll were economists on the staff of Barclays Capital, Capital Economics, China International Capital Corp., Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Chartered and UBS, as well as the independent economist Albert Keidel.